Ranking The 2024 State Championship Titles By Predictability


Through five races, Webb's Abby Faith Cheeseman has averaged under seventeen minutes and enters state on a three meet win streak.

2024 TSSAA State Championship

The TSSAA State Championships return to Sanders Ferry Park for the fifth season in a row on Thursday and Friday and while some competitions have obvious favorites, others are harder to predict. We ranked each title from most predictable to least to help prepare you for the drama. Click the blue text throughout to navigate to rankings for that individual or team race. 

Most Likely To Win

1. Division II Class A Girls Individual

When Webb School of Bell Buckle's Abby Faith Cheeseman crosses the finish line on Friday morning, she will likely become the first runner in Tennessee history to win an individual state title five times. She won her first as an eight grader in 2020 by just 22 seconds and increased that margin each subsequent season. last year, she won the competition by over three minutes with a similar projected margin this week. The race will not only mark the final time she races on the course on Tennessee soil, but will also be the final time a member of the Cheeseman family will as well. Abby Faith is the youngest of four and each of the siblings won an individual title of their own: Allison (2012, 2013) Claire (2015) Carter (2015) who all ran for Brentwood Academy. 

2. Division I Class AAA Girls Team

Since the state meet moved to Sanders Ferry in the fall of 2020, Division I Class AAA has known no other champion than the Lady Bruins of Brentwood High and that is not likely to change in the afternoon session on Friday. Brentwood enters the meet with the lowest team average (18:08), lowest 1-5 split (31.73), most runners under nineteen minutes (6), and undefeated on the season. Winning will move the Bruins into a tie for 2nd for most state titles in a row by any program in state history and the longest by any Division I program. 

3. Division I Class AAA Girls Individual

Nolensville's Claire Stegall did not run her first race until October 19th and that was by design. When you're hoping to peak in December for either Foot Locker or NXN, races in August or September aren't that beneficial. Also, when you've had an up and down history like the future Gator has had, I understand treating meets like a pitch count. All that aside, the two time defending state champion is positioned to make it three in a row having just beat a lot of the next closest competitors in the field by 30 seconds or more at region, all of who are closely matched in ability to Hailey and Vesser. It'll be interesting to see how much she presses or how much she sits back this year. In 2022 she won win a 17:52 and in 2023 a 16:56. She does what she needs to depending on who is in the race with her. 

4. Division II Class AA Girls Team

The Webb School of Knoxville owned Division II Class A for the better part of the 2010's winning seven championships in a row from 2012 to 2018. In 2020 they moved up to Class AA and after an adjustment period, finally got back on top of the podium last season. They enter Thursday with the three fastest runners in the field (who we'll talk more about later) and a strong supporting cast that can bring in seven ahead of most other team's five. Though the Spartans have a well documented history at this meet, this will be the first TSSAA State Championship for new head coach Dan Murray who took over for Bobby Holcombe this summer. All indicators point to beginning his tenure on top. 

5. Division II Class A Boys Individual


It's been several years since we've mentioned Davidson Academy on this site but after brothers Eli Wharton and Isaac Wharton (above) enrolled this fall after moving from Bessemer, Alabama, it became apparent very early they were going to be a problem. The pair spent most of the season dominating the TSIAA weekly series at The Hermitage running 15:41 and 15:46 at the Championship on October 14th and in the races where they've run against stiffer competition have fared well. Eli finished 18th at Jesse Owens and 10th at the MSCCA Championship. He would likely be the favorite between the two finishing ahead of Isaac in all but one race this season. The next closest runner in the rankings is Andrew Mansfield who was also in the field at Jesse Owens but was 40 second behind Eli.