A Couple Of Contenders
6. Division I Class AA/A Girls Team
7. Division I Class AAA Boys Individual
My prediction for this Classification last fall was that "A Senior Would Win" and the three seniors mentioned finished 1-2-3. Independence's Asher Oates finished 4th and has been running like the top returner all season with four meet wins, a 15:11 average through seven races, and no losses to anyone in Class AAA. His main opponent will be Cleveland's Owen Clemons. Clemons made history two year's ago winning this race as a freshman but was not able to finish last year due to injury. He is healthy now and has run 15:04, 14:44, and 14:47 in his last three outings. I see this turning into a two man race with a chase pack that includes Callahan Fielder (Brentoowd), Gabe Allen (Hardin Valley), and Evan Beeler (Farragut).
8. Division I Class AAA Boys Team
Speaking of Hardin Valley and Farragut, they are the teams that are likely going to bring home another championship to Knoxville next Friday which has been the case since the meet moved to Sanders Ferry in 2020. Hardin Valley won two in a row in 2020 and 2021. Farragut won in 2022 and 2023. The question is is whether or not that trophy going north or south of I-40. Though Brentwood started the season strong at Saturday Light Fever with a runner up finish and head to head victory over Hardin Valley, they started to slip in September and October losing to Farragut twice. Hardin Valley beat Farragut at KIL who answered back with a victory of their own over Hardin Valley at the Region Championship. On paper these teams are mirror images of each other with one clear lead runner and strong supporting casts and depth all the way down to 7.
9. Division I Class AA/A Girls Individual
The top four finishers from this race last season all return and though Liberty Creek's Sydney Tackett may be the defending state champion, through six races that she has been on the same course as Station Camp's Brynn Balturshot she has not beat her. Last year heading into this competition, the two had split head to head matchups with late season wins propelling Tackett to victory. Balturshot has had an impressive fall with a signature win at The Southern Showcase (above) and season best of 17:48. Anderson County's Ava Moody placed 3rd at the Southern Showcase (and at state last season) which is the only time the two have raced this season. Moody has had an impressive fall herself winning four races with a season's best of 17:38. By the second lap these two will likely be in a pack of their own.
10. Division II Class A Girls Team
This classification has only been segmented off on it's own since 2007 and prior to 2022, only three teams had won the state title: USN won three, St. George's Independent School won three, and Webb School of Knoxville won nine. Westminster won in 2022 followed by Webb School of Bell Buckle and both are in contention again however, Columbia Academy is positioned to keep the streak of first time winners going as they are the on-paper favorites entering the race and are fresh off a two point victory over Webb at the Middle Regional. I see these two programs, much like Hardin Valley and Farragut in the boys race, as the most likely to win. Westminster will be competitive 1-4 but are very thin after that.
11. Division II Class AA Boys Team
This race was my least predictable when I wrote this article last year as four teams legitimately could have won. This year it's been dwindled down to two as you have "new kids on the block" Knoxville Catholic facing off against the reigning five time state champions in McCallie. The went head to head in early October where the Irish got the better of the Blue Tornadoes at their home course by six. It's hard to pick against Catholic as they entered the season as the #1 team in the state and have raced like it ever since beating the like of Brentwood, McCallie, Farragut, and Hardin Valley in the process. But it's also hard to pick against McCallie as well considering they've never lost at Sanders Ferry. I think the margin will be less than 10 again this year with teams checking cell phone footage counting places in after the race.
12. Division II Class AA Girls Individual
Last year, the implication I made for this race was that a girl in green would win. No only was that incorrect, but girls in purple got first AND second. So while on paper this may seem pretty straight forward, there's still a little scar tissue from last year's outcome. That said, this is Carolina Areheart's to lose. Through five races this season, she has an average time of 17:33 with all over her races under eighteen minutes. She has three wins and two runner up finishes. If someone does beat her, it'll most likely be her Spartan teammate Jazzlyn Garmer who accounts for one of those runner up finishes which was their most recent race at KIL. Garmer has a best of 17:28 and along with sister Calysta, are the only ones in the field under 18:00 over 5k for the year. While you can't rule out the defending champion Lydia Brunner of Father Ryan, her teammate Maggie Slattery, or 8th grader Addy Cotter of Baylor, it's hard to see how either can match the consistency of Areheart even on their best day.