Abby Faith Cheeseman leads the pack at Great American before pulling away from the field for a forty second victory.
2023 TSSAA State Championship
The TSSAA State Championships return to Sanders Ferry Park for the fourth season in a row on Thursday and Friday and while some competitions have obvious favorites, others are harder to predict. We ranked each title from most predictable to least to help prepare you for the drama. Click throughout the jump to rankings for that individual or team race.
Most Likely To Win
1. Division II Class A Girls Individual
Even though she's a Junior, Abby Faith Cheeseman is going for her 4th title in a row in this division. Her three previous championships were won by a margin of 1:21, 1:32, and 0:22 and she enters this year's race with a full three minute lead of the next ranked runner, teammate Henley Pritchard. The State Meet record held by Jenna Hutchins is 16:30 and if the course and the weather cooperate, I have a feeling she may try to make a run at that mark. Early forecast though is looking sunny but brisk.
2. Division II Class AA Girls Team
The next three or so in the rankings could really be 2a, 2b, and 2c because based on what they've accomplished this season against their closest competitors, I think you'd be surprised if they lost. That said, I'm going to order them based on their rank against each other giving Webb School of Knoxville a leg up on Brentwood and Signal Mountain when it comes to predicability. The Spartans moved up to Class AA in 2021 and placed runner up two years in a row to Harpeth Hall but are in position this year to flip the script on the Honeybears. The one time they raced this season at Jesse Owens, Webb scored 55 to Harpeth Hall's 150. In a smaller field the scores will of course be closer than 100 points but the depth of Webb, with five girls faster than 18:10 and all seven faster than 19:15, will be too much for the defending champions to overcome even on their best day.
3. Division I Class AAA Girls Team
Brentwood High School is on track to make it four in a row with multiple (and recent) victories over the next closest ranked teams behind them, Beech and Page, and an early season victory over Hardin Valley. The only teams in the composite Top 10 they haven't raced are Houston and Daniel Boone who rank 5th and 7th. While I believe those teams have the potential to jump some ranked ahead of them (Houston beat Page at Randolph after all), it likely won't be the Bruins. Even if Lia Banovac, who did not race at regionals, is not able to return for state, they still have four runners consistently under nineteen minutes when only one other team in the class has three. With a supporting cast at 20:02 or faster, they should be able to keep the streak alive.
4. Division I Class AA/A Girls Team
After reclassification, we pointed out the potential impact Station Camp brought with them to this Division but Signal Mountain must not have read that article. Instead they've proven themselves week in and week out with strong performances at some of the highest profile meets in the southeast. They placed 9th at the Southern Showcase, 3rd at Wingfoot, and 5th at Jesse Owens only placing behind the likes of Webb, Brentwood, and Harpeth Hall throughout. While the Bison will still likely be in contention for hardware (and very likely will leave with some), I don't think Signal will be frantically reviewing finish line footage for this race like they have in year's past trying to determine placements.
5. Division II Class A Boys Team
The last time a team from this Division had five runners under eighteen minutes at any point in the season was 2020. Columbia Academy will come to Hendersonville next week as the only team this season with that profile while no othe team in the division has four. At the Middle Regional, the Bulldogs scored just 21 points with a team average of 17:25 and spread of less than a minute. On paper they enter the meet as a 57 point favorite which is the largest margin among all the Division II classes. It's quite the turn around for a program that didn't even qualify as a team just a year ago.
6. Division II Class A Boys Individual
After Cheeseman, there is only one other division that, based on rankings, has a singular favorite. While the rest have competitors seeded within 30 seconds or less, CAK's Joshua Cross enters the race with a PR almost 47 seconds better than second and is the only runner in this division to run under sixteen minutes (15:53 at Jesse Owens) and has run faster than his closest competitor's best two more times on top of that. For this division, it would be the second year in a row the top returner from the season before (Drew Johnson last year) would live up to their seeding and win a state title if Cross can come away with the victory. The only other runners under seventeen are Jack Hagerman of Lausanne and CJ Barr of Columbia. I'll be interested to see how this race unfolds. Will Cross make them chase or will he let them lead and try to pull away on the second loop?