Might Not Be A Runaway
7. Division I Class AA/A Boys Team
As with the girls from Signal Mountain, the same can be said about the boys. I think the aftermath of the race this year will be more celebratory and less frantic than in year's past. The only reason I'm ranking this down so much farther is the volitity that is likely to take place behind them with the teams vying for runner up. You could put Memphis East, Central Magnet, Station Camp, Hume-Fogg, Martin Luther King in a hat and draw at random and have as good of shot predicting who will place second as I do. East returns a full squad that placed third here last season but when they returned to Sanders Ferry for Coleman Midgett they lost a close battle with MLK by 13 points. I anticipate there will be small margins like that separating all of the squads previously mentioned.
8. Division I Class AAA Girls Individual
When I initially started thinking about this article, I had this race a lot higher. Claire Stegall and Jaynie Halterman had not yet raced each other but based on common opponents and common courses, Stegall had the edge. After the Region 6 Championship, I had to recalibrate my expectations. Halterman won the region title with a 17:01, 37 seconds ahead of Stegall and 49 seconds faster than her time at this course earlier this season. After a missing last year's championship and all of track season, Halterman has done nothing but make up for lost time. She has five victories on the season with her only non-victory a 7th place finish at Nike Town Twilight. While the matchup between these two is now wildly unpredictable, compared to the other individual races, they are the only two I think could win. The remaining individual races I haven't gotten to, as you'll see, have a lot more in the mix.
9. Division I Class AAA Boys Team
Since winning the Southeast Region Title last season, Farragut has not looked back. Though some thought they might regress due to graduation, they've rebuilt and cemented themselves as the number one team in the state for the second year in a row. That said, compared to the other team races that are ranked ahead of this, the possibility for variability is higher in this competition than those. Farragut's body of work this year included two victories over Brentwood but from Southern Showcase to Jesse Owens, Brentwood was able to close the point total significantly. With Beech, last year's runner up team, on their home course and also in the mix, though the margin for error for the Admirals is still pretty high, it's not as high as say the Webb or Brentwood Girls.
10. Division I Class AAA Boys Individual
As with the girls in Class AAA which was realistically narrowed down to two, I feel like this race has dwindled to three possible winners: Miles Ramer, Matteo Tonnos, and Luke Mussard. With defending champion Owen Clemons unable to race, the three seniors, who are also the only three in the division under 15-minutes, will take center stage and theres a case to be made for all of them. Ramer won this event in 2021, has the fastest time coming in and the head to head victory over Tonnos at Southern Showcase. Tonnos has the fastest mark in October and beat Mussard here last year. Mussard has five victories on the year and set several long standing course and meet records in East Tennessee. As long as these runners race like alphas, not many will be left to challenge them by the time they come around for lap two.
11. Division I Class AA/A Girls Individual
There are about four girls in this race that if they won, I would not be surprised. Ava Moody placed 16th here last year and has made and incredible year over year improvement entering the race as the on-paper favorite with an 18:04 at Jesse Owens. Sydney Tackett has the fastest time at Sanders Ferry with an 18:15 at the Region 5 championship. Brynn Balturshot has the most sub-19 races this season with a total of five. Maxine Richards placed runner up in this race last season and has the "fastest slowest" time of all those previously mentioned with a 19:01. It should be a solid race of a handful of girls who have never won an individual title before.