Instagram Predictions

On July 13th, we posted a story on our Instagram page that simply asked followers "What is your prediction for the 2022 Cross County season?" After one day we received over 70 responses with more coming in. From now until the first gun fires, we'll analyze some of those predictions to help us prepare for the upcoming 2022 season.

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Prediction: A Record Number Of Boys Will Run Under 15:00 For 5k

"More than 5 people [boys] break 15 this season"

Before track season, one of my big storylines to follow was "could a record number of girls break 5:00 for 1600m." We needed ten and we only got three. So I'm hesitant to make this prediction to begin with but technically this came from a follower on Instagram so it isn't solely mine.

According to our database, fourteen Tennessee runners have accomplished this feat with Keegan Smith (14:53) and Landen McNair (14:59) becoming the most recent at last year's Southern Showcase. 

Boys All-Time 5K Rankings

In Pairs

With the performances above, last season was just the third time two runners ran under the 15 minute barrier in Tennessee history. The first season was in 2008 with Bill Matthews and Matthew Sonnenfeldt and the other in 2016 with teammates Brodey Hasty and Taylor Vroon. There has not yet been a season where more than two runners have accomplished this feat but with Smith having already done so and a load of talent returning with him, this could be the first season we could collectively see three or more. 

The Candidates

• Under 15:00 - Keegan Smith
• 15:00 - 15:20 - Will Douglas, Miles Ramer, Owen Clemons, Brody Chapman, Luke Thompson
• 15:21 - 15:40 - Jack Bowen, Trevor Coggin, Hays Adams, Jackson Martin, Daniel McGuire, Joshua Pote

Expanded Opportunity

Nine of the twelve runners mentioned above ran their fastest time of the season at John Hunt Running Park which hosts Southern Showcase, Garmin RunningLane, and the lesser known Randolph Invitational. I suspect most, if not all, will have at least one attempt at the course in Huntsville before 2022 is over. Eastbay, formerly Footlocker, used to mark the end of the racing season up until a few years ago but Garmin has essentially nestled itself on the calendar the weekend after which is an attractive spot if 1) You didn't want to spend your Thanksgiving Holiday weekend racing at Mcalpine or 2) You didn't have a great race in North Carolina and want to end the season on a high note.  "Oh did you not get Top 10 in Charlotte? Come to Garmin and set your new PR." 

More Than Five?!

While we may have the fastest course in the country in our own backyard and multiple opportunities a year to run on it, I find it unlikely we would get five or more but I'll be happy to be proven wrong. I feel pretty confident we do set the record of three however as long as we can avoid lingering ailments or season ending injuries to one or more of the runners listed above. But even if we don't set a record, the fact we're even thinking about this at the outset of the season is a testament to the amount of talent we have in our state and I am very much looking forward to what they can and will accomplish.