Memphis Area Cross Country Preview
Cross Country has officially started. In the Memphis area, the Memphis Twilight Classic is typically the unofficial start of competition even though other races are on the calendar. I'll probably mention this along the way, but cross-country is a bit difficult to predict. Unless athletes are running on the same course and the same day - i.e., head-to-head competition, the rankings can be somewhat relative at times. No course has the same design. Taking splits mean little if taken on different courses. Heck, the same course can run completely differently from one day to the next. The first race of the season can be run in 90 or higher temperatures while the last meet can drop into the 40's. You can't compare with so many variables in play. So, for now, this is a look at what the Cross-Country field will look like across the Memphis area this season.
Division 1 AAA
It's not unusual to see the rankings get shaken up a bit in the early season, especially if the previous year had quite a few seniors filling the top ranks. Almost half of the top 20 in the Boys D1 AAA division last season were seniors. But there's nothing unusual about that. Cross country is basically a strength running sport. The more racing you do, the more experience you get. The more experience you get, the stronger you get. By the time you're a senior, if you don't get that dreaded senioritis, you are stronger and experienced enough to turn the pain you feel during a race into a better result at the end. But then again, I've seen freshman come out and blister courses. Cross country - expect the unusual.
Two out of the best top 3 from last year were senior boys in Region 8AAA and it's my understanding that Hays Adams, the top ranked athlete out of the Region now is going to focus more on soccer and may not run cross country. Soccer is his primary sport, which is why we don't see him during track season. That leaves a pretty big opening in that Region for those returning to the sport this season. But... it's cross country and you never really know what is going to happen.
Within the top four of the group, there's only about twenty-two seconds separating them. It will be interesting to see who may come out on top among these few. Dante Torres (Bartlett) seems to be better the longer the distance becomes and Jarryn Lowe (White Station) with the faster track speed. For instance, Dante has a 2:10 in the 800 and Jarryn drops way down to 1:52. That is a huge difference. But there's only about a 3 second difference in PR's once you get the 3200M distance with Dante the better. That spread gets wider in the cross country 5K distance, with Dante the better by about seven seconds. With both being seniors and clearly stronger athletes now, in a close race, I'm wondering if Jarryn's track speed will be a deciding factor this season? These two will be worth watching as the season progresses.
Three more athletes, all with 5K times within just a few seconds of each other could enter the picture for the top spot as well. Dante's teammate, Andrew Moore who was fifth last season in the Region meet has a time of 16:37 and that was on the Shelby Farms championship course which is a fairly tough course to set PR on. And last track season, he was able to set a strong 3200 mark of 10:07.53. Rounding out the last two in the sub 17 group are Lucas Black (16:40) from Arlington and Thomas Dickinson (16:41) from Houston High. Even though there is only a second difference in the rankings, Thomas seems to have the edge in the times they've gone head to head over the 5K distance.
It's always tough to give a prediction on how the cross-country season could end up. Rankings don't always tell a true story. Different courses run differently. Weather is such a factor in cross country as are course conditions. And there are definitely easy courses out there that bring in tons of athletes and really skew the rankings. So I'm not going to pull out the tarot cards and give predictions, just some guesses on how things could turn out. However, I'd have to say these four guys are going to be in the picture for sure.
A wildcard that could play out in this Region might just be someone out of Houston since a few of their 8th graders that won the state middle school championship will be rookies on the high school team this season. That could put a twist in the season, especially if the transition to the 5K is smooth.
The girls AAA will again be headed by Houston's team. This may seem like we're in a continuous loop with the Houston girls, but it's a fact that they are consistently rising to the top in the Memphis area. That's no longer just a trend, it's a tradition! Zoe Marsh (18:29) leads the way for the girls and being a Junior, will be doing that for a while longer too. She recently ran an 11:08.57 in the high school 3200M event at the Ed Murphey Classic just a couple weeks ago. That was on an extremely hot and humid day and only about 12 seconds off her PR which makes that even more impressive. I don't see anyone in the Region that can match the pace that she can hold over this distance.
Zoe's closest competitor out of Region 8 AAA will probably be her teammates: Lindsey Barnes and Ava Stockdale. Lindsey posted a 19:25 as her best 5K but this last track season, she dropped her times in just about every event she ran. New PR's in the 800, 1600, Mile, and in the 3200M. Not to be outdone, Ava (19:44 best) also set a few PRs last track season - in all those same events. Ava also took about a minute off her 5K CC PR from 2021 to 2022 and she always seems to end the season faster than the start, whether that be in track or cross country. That's two athletes that had great track seasons and have to be heading into this cross-country season bounding in confidence. That really doesn't bode well for the competition in the area.
But that competition is likely to be tested by the girls from Collierville. They come in with the next best 3 with Scarlett Nash (19:53), Maya McCloskey (19:57) and Ava Lang (20:00). As always, the team competition will come down to who can pull up the pack in the 4th and 5th positions. Right now, I'm giving the nod to the Houston girls and even more, won't count them out in November either.