Individual Girls
Of the top 5 returning girl runners from last year's state meet we have a combined total of 7 races between them so far this season and it's hard to believe that the top returner is not Jenna Hutchins, it's Leigh Walters. Late debuts seem to be a trend with elite runners hoping to race their best at post-season meets and at the time of this publishing, Foot Locker Nationals has not yet announced cancelation even though Nike Team Nationals has. With only 3 of the top 20 runners from last year's large school division graduating, this year's group of girls is DEEP.
While we can argue about length of courses, records or what not, all I can say is the championship is Jenna's to lose and contrarily it's hers to also finally win as well. Between all the top times and accolades she has accumulated over her first two seasons, an "undisputed" TSSAA Cross Country Championship is still missing from her mantle. Maybe the course was "fast," but that does not discount the fact she still gapped the next closest Tennessee competitor by over 90 seconds.
Even though the race for first may be decided early, the race for 2nd will be very exciting until the end. Winders, Walters, Vanderkolk, Wilcox, Jones, Ouellette, McCarthy, and Tyll will all have something to say in November with Division II runners like Allison Newman also running well the merged results will be crowded with impressive finishes.
Team Girls
This is a category I'm hesitant to speculate on. A team from East Tennessee won the title over the past two seasons and while I've seen Brentwood in person, while live tweeting the race from Sander's Ferry Showdown, I projected Independence to beat them. Turns out the 5th runner from Indy was further back than I could calculate live. This, however, should be a sign that while "rankings" will show them as the favorite right now based on documented times that they are also vulnerable if one of their runners has a bad race.
One of those teams that may have a say is Science Hill. Two years ago, I reported from Clarksville as Liberty Bell Middle won the girls state title that season and assuming all runners from that team continued on to the high school, a young squad with an elite talent are the ingredients for a spoiler. They may just be one year away though as Daniel Boone has already beat them head to head.
Ultimately, while some schools seek out fast courses while others stay local, we've seen that "rankings" can be fool's gold when everyone is on the same course in November.