How Each Can Win
Harpeth Hall
Bella Guillamondegui and Annamaria Bacchetta are fresh of a first and second place finish in the 1600m at the state track meet that occurred almost 2 months ago. While the times weren't jaw dropping, the race really illustrated two things: Bella dictated the race and Bacchetta is ready for a breakout season. Bella, as the champion, can't improve her scoring position and Annamaria, who finished 8th, really can't much either. If Harpeth Hall is to win again this season, at least two support runners from last season, Lily Bowen, Elizabeth John, Clara Scott Harden, of Lucy Farringer, will need to challenge for Top 10 placing to replace the points lost with Wojciechowski and round out a scoring 5 in the Top 20.
Webb School of Knoxville
The Spartans were the only team last season to place three girls in the Top 10 and I don't see that changing. Twins Jazzlyn Garmer and Calysta Garmer will officially be high schoolers this season and teammate Anna Graves had an indoor/outdoor track campaign that suggests she's ready to join them under 19-minutes this cross season. The question is can anyone else close the gap? While Graves ran 19:42 the next best runner for Webb ran 20:59 with their 7th runner crossing the line less than 30 seconds later. This cluster of support runners will return 3 this season so if just one can place in the Top 20 with others hanging around 25-30 they could see a better placing than they did the year before.
Anna Grave placed runner up in the Silver Division at the Music City Track Carnival breaking the 5-minute 1600m barrier in the process.
Girls Preparatory School
Unlike three of the five schools we're examining in this article, GPS does not have a runner that is challenging for a Top 5. Instead they have five runners who are all challenging for Top 10 to 20. They have a pack mentality and Coach Outlaw discussed that with us last year.
The spread at state last year for runners 1-5 was 1:02 and all of them are returning in 2022 and they're all only going to be sophomores this season. Mariah Ivery, Frances Bohner, Gilly Shumate, Tessie Braman, and Mary Wamack all placed between 10th and 25th at state last season. There is no doubt they can win a team title without a Top 5 finisher, but the spread will either have to tighten or stay the same and collectively move up 4-5 spots each.
Baylor School
Baylor's team is the only squad that returns every runner from last year 1-7. Now if you look at the results, only six runner finished at state last season because 2020 State Champion Mae Mae Powe had an unfortunate fall in the first half-mile of the race and could not continue. Their pathway to victory seems easy, Powe just needs to get through the race unscathed and finish in the Top 5. While that might be enough, her absence really amplified their need for depth beyond the scoring five (which is pretty much the case for almost every team in this division). With Addi Greene and Helen Webb, Baylor could join Webb with three runners in the Top 10.
Father Ryan
If the "new blood coming in" mentioned in the response to the Instagram post isn't a trio of girls running under 20 minutes I'm not sure it's possible. We'll revisit this after the first set of results.
Summation
I think it's safe to say that the pathway to a state title in this division is less about who is running #1 or #2 for each of these teams and more about who is running #4, 5, and 6. While that may seem like a generic assessment of any cross country team in any division, in this one, they will make all the difference this season without knowing who any of these teams have added to their roster in the offseason. If a runner from last year's Top 10 runs 20 seconds faster, they may improve their placing by at most two spots. If a runner in the pack behind them improves by 20 seconds, they could improve their position by six or seven which is well within range of changing the outcome of the final standings.