Nothing Will Surprise Me
12. Division II Class AA Girls Individual
While I do think Jazzlyn Garmer has earned the title of "favorite" heading into Sanders Ferry, there are still a lot of pedigree that will join her on the course that can't be overlooked. Every team has multiple runners who may appear on the fringes, but could play spoiler under the right conditions. From her own team her only loss this year to a runner in this division is to Carolina Areheart and her other teammate, who is closest in the rankings, Anna Graves finished 2nd here last season. Harpeth Hall will bring Lily Bowen and Annamaria Bacchetta who rank 3rd and 5th respectively. There's also been zero crossover with Baylor who will bring Mae Mae Powe, 3200m Champion last spring and 2020 Champion for Cross Country, and Addi Greene who also finished runner up here two years ago. I also wouldn't rule out up and comers Lydia Brunner and Maggie Slattery from Father Ryan. Should be exciting to see a new champion crowned in a division that was dominated by Bella Guillamondegui for the last couple of seasons.
13. Division II Class AA Boys Individual
I had a hard time determing where to place this race because on one hand, no one has the resume Keegan Smith has put together this season but on the other, no other race has the quality of challengers. A year ago, Smith was in a similar position but placed 4th. Luke Thompson won with a winning time of 15:17 with Jack Bowen closely behind. MBA teammates Samuel Trumble and Jack Wallace came close to that Sanders Ferry mark with a 15:23 and 15:25 respectively earlier this season at Coleman Midgett. Even his teammate Radek Molchan and training partner Colin Eckerman are strong candidates to play spoiler. Will be curious if he takes a page out of his 2021 Championship run and presses the first lap to drop as many as possible before the second.
14. Division I Class AA/A Boys Individual
My issue with this race is that I keep comparing it to the last two renditions of this division where it was a clear cut duel between Jackson Martin and Will Douglas. While Joshua Pote enters the race as the favorite, he has a head to head loss against Ty Brown and while he's prevailed against his teammates all season, Diangelo Cisto and Tynan Borders are within striking distance. Group them together with Zachariah Ostrander who won Cherokee and Jaden Hillis who has the most course familiarity and the recipe for uncertainty emerges.
15. Division II Class A Girls Team
I really don't have a feel for this division really at all because the composite rankings compared against what's occurring in actuality are the most off of any of the Divisions. Webb ranks #1 but lost to USN by 20 at the Middle Region Championship. Battle Ground Academy ranks 3rd overall but failed to qualify as a team finishing behind USN, Webb and Columbia Academy. Evangelical Christian ranks 6th but beat defending champions Westminster Academy who ranks 4th at the West Region Championship. So while that tool at times can be a good indicator, in this case for this division, it's wildly inaccurate illustrating the unpredicability of how this team race will unfold.
16. Division II Class AA Boys Team
McCallie has won four titles in a row. McCallie has not lost to a team from Tennessee this season. McCallie beat MBA at their home meet, Christian Brothers at Randolph, and Brentwood Academy at Great American. And yet, of all four boys team races, McCallie has the least margin for error. Their victory over MBA was by just one point in what was essentially a duel meet, their victory over CBHS at Randolph was won by just 8, and though their point total over BA at Great American was just shy of 100 points, their team average was just 8 seconds different. Throw in Knoxville Catholic and the streak is definitely in jeopardy. The only thing that will shock me is if the margin of victory is greater than 10 points by any team that wins.