Division I Class AAA Girls
Top 5 Ranked Individuals
Runner | School | Time |
| Claire Stegall | Nolensville | 17:08 |
| Larkin Johnson | Centennial | 18:00 |
| Autumn Headrick | Dobyns-Bennett | 18:02 |
| Lydia Cromwell | Brentwood | 18:21 |
| Jordan Rayl | Ravenwood | 18:24 |
Full Division I Class AAA Individual Rankings
Last year, it was a toss-up between a trio of seniors Kyra Hayes, Ann-Marie Braese, and Andie-Marie Jones. They would run the entire race in that order where Hayes would eventually hold off a surging Braese for the victory. There shouldn't be as much drama this season with Claire Stegall coming into the competition with a lead on paper we haven't seen since Jenna Hutchins but after what occurred at regionals and what recent history has taught us, Sanders Ferry and elite girls don't always get along. Though Stegall notched the victory at the Region 6-AAA Championship, if you looked at the results, you'll see she ran a season's worst by over a minute. It was reported to me that she broke down over the final stretch, walked deliriously to the line, and was taken away in an ambulance after. It was later reported by her mom that she suffered an Exertional Vagal event that is caused by lack of salt/sodium. A similar situation occurred earlier this season at Southern Showcase. While this is likely all coincidental, this is not the first time we've seen a high caliber girl runner break down at Sanders Ferry. It happened to Bella Guillamondegui and Lauren Rutlin in 2020 at State and Houston's Zoe Marsh at this year's Saturday Light Fever. While I hope a situation like this does not affect the outcome of this race or any other, given the unseasonably warm temperatures forecasted for Friday (77 and sunny), this among general exhaustion should be considered.
Claire Stegall was on cruise control mid-race during the region championship.
That said, assuming Stegall does run away with it, the race behind her should be very competitive with a pair of former TMSAA State Champions headlining the chase pack. Centennial freshman Larkin Johnson won the 2021 Class A State Championship while Dobyns-Bennett's Autumn Headrick won the 2018 Class AA State Championship. They're both at very different points in their career with Johnson running her first state meet and Headrick running her last. While on paper they may be the most likely candidates, based on recent history some others may have an opportunity to get into the mix. Rachel Haws beat Johnson at Region 6, Rayl opened the season with a victory over Cromwell and Haws, Zoe Marsh is coming off of back to back victories after an up and down start to the season, and Maddie Archdale, who placed 10th last year, has yet to be on a common course with any of them.
Top 3 Ranked Teams
Team | Projected Points |
| Brentwood | 68 |
| Houston | 158 |
| Beech | 230 |
Full Division I Class AAA Team Rankings
The machine just keeps on rolling. The infrastructure at Brentwood has it in position to make it three in a row. In 2020, they graduated four then added Rachel Haws, Lydia Cromwell, and Scarlett Spender. They limp into this season with missed time from Peyton Strauss and Brooke Tyll but add Lauren Banovac and Lia Banovac with Hailey Parker and Lola Baker also filling up the scoring positions and head into state with a bigger projected margin than they did last season. They are the only team in AAA with seven runners under twenty minutes this season while no other team has five.
Houston has four though and may be peaking at just the right time. At the midpoint of the season, they were ranked outside the top three but after a dominant showing at Region 8 they enter as the projected runner up. I think Beech will race them much closer than 80 points behind and I also think a team from Region 1, who race historically well at state, may have an opportunity to jump some of the higher ranked teams.