10 Championships & 4 NXN Berths on the Line

Division 1 Boys

Defending champion and US #1 Great Oak continues to march on, winning the Southern Section by 23 points for their 3rd head-to-head victory over Dana Hills this year.  It's entirely possible that those two teams could go 1-2 at the state meet again, as they did last year, and it may not be as close this time around.  There was an 87-point gap behind the Dolphins at Mt. SAC last weekend, which could open the door for a spirited competition for third place if none of the contenders can catch the top two teams.  Ventura seems to be the consensus 3rd-best team out of the Southern Section, but after them it gets a little jumbled.  California (Whittier) had a tremendous performance at the finals last weekend, which should add a confidence boost to a team that has run with ambition all season.  On the other hand, looking at season-best times, you could go with Arcadia or Burroughs Burbank.  Those two seem to do better on flatter, faster courses, and could find Woodward Park more to their liking than Mt. SAC was this past Saturday.  Don't forget: Burroughs was 4th in last year's state meet.

Madera South finished 3rd last year, representing the Central Section well, and could very well end up there again with a good race.  The chief contender to Great Oak and Dana Hills could be Jesuit, though - the Marauders took 3rd when these 4 teams squared off at Woodward Park earlier this year for the Asics Clovis meet, and they were only 18 points behind Dana Hills there.  Davis trailed Jesuit by just 10 points in the Sac Joaquin finals, though, which could mean the Blue Devils are also in contention for the top 5.

Individually, it would be a huge upset if anyone got past Phillip Rocha.  The Arcadia senior continues to roll, posting the top times in every meet he has run even when he doesn't necessarily always face the other elite runners.  Last weekend, Spencer Dodds (Great Oak) gave Rocha a really good race, staying within two seconds of the #2-ranked runner in the nation, while Garrett Reynolds (Ventura) was the only other guy to break 15 on the Mt. SAC course.   The LA City Section puts up a potential top-5 runner in Paul Luevano (Venice), who has a huge time from a flat 3 mile course that seems to indicate great potential.  The top contender to the Southern Section individuals, though, is most likely Davis' Michael Vernau, who has earned respect with big races all season; he won the SJS by 20 seconds.  If it's not Vernau pushing Rocha, then it could be Eduardo "Lalo" Herrera (Madera South), who was 4th last year and ran roughshod over the Central Section a week ago.  Interestingly, two top returners from two different teams have struggled to stay ahead of their own teammates this season; Jake Ogden was 3rd last year for Dana Hills and could be rounding into top form just in time, while Sean Kurdy has seen Ben Holland take up the role of #1 runner for Jesuit.

The biggest question of the meet is very simple: will Fiona O'Keeffe run?  After a spectacular start to the season that saw her post performances that led the nation at the time (her 3 mile time still does), the Davis senior has not raced since October 7th due to some nagging shin pain.  The word was that she could have raced two weeks, but was held out to try to complete her recovery (as her team did not need her to advance).  Even if she is back, will she be sharp enough to contend for the title after such a long break from racing?  It might not matter, because her best 5K is 32 seconds faster than anyone else in the state!  In her absence, teammate Sofia Castiglioni established herself as a potential top-5 runner individually.  One wild card in the individual competition: Kristen Leung (Lowell) clocked 17:42 while winning the San Francisco Section by over 2 minutes, and could have even more in the tank when she has competition around her.  Of course, you have to expect Brooke Starn (Monte Vista) to be right in the thick of things after she posted the best time of all the girls at the Mt. SAC Invite earlier this fall (not to mention a commanding win in the NCS Meet of Champions).

Will any of those individuals be able to stand up to the onslaught of Southern Section talent?  Freshman Chloe Arriaga (Walnut) claimed the individual title last weekend in a mild upset, holding off Emily Virtue (Burroughs Burbank). Great Oak has two individuals that could threaten the top 5, but they seemed to hold back to run together as a team last weekend.  The Wolfpack's most consistent performer up front all season has been Evelyn Mandel, although you can never count Destiny Collins out (after all, she was 3rd last year).  Although she didn't have her best race last weekend, Holly Lung (Arcadia) has put up some big times this season and should be a factor at Woodward Park.