NCHSAA 4A Regional Previews

For the next two weeks, Bakri Abushouk focuses on lifting his Cary teammates to their highest possible potential.

 

4A East Region

Girls Teams to Watch

This region is a little thin on depth, but has two quality teams at the top.  Jack Britt comes in with the best ranking, but Pinecrest is close behind and closing.  Almost 100 points behind those two teams, there will also be a good battle for third place between Laney and New Hanover.  There is one more pair of teams with an outside shot at contention, West Johnston and South View, but it looks as though they will be fighting for fifth place unless something unusual happens.

 

Girls Individuals to Watch

Lavinia Cotto (Jack Britt) has run well all year and improved steadily into the favorite for the regional title.  Becca Meshaw (West Johnston) has really turned it on over the last month, while Jennie Cunningham (Pinecrest) is finally rounding into top form after time off this summer; don't be surprised if she ends up winning this one, especially on a course that favors her strength.  Kerry Leonard (Laney) and Kate Sanborn (Jack Britt) will try to tag on the back of that first group.  After the front five, another pack forms with Katie Lacamera (Terry Sanford) at the front, followed by the majority of the Pinecrest and Jack Britt teams.

 

Boys Teams to Watch

Pinecrest has really begun to put everything together over the last few weeks, with their pack starting in the low-16's now (and only a 23-second split from 1 to 5).  You could say almost the exact same thing about South View, which has an impressive pack as well, theirs being a 17-second split.  The difference is that South View's pack starts in the 16:20's, so they will have to shift forward as a group to take the title away from the Patriots.  After the top two teams, though, nothing is certain, as there are as many as five more teams that can say they have a shot at getting out of the region.  Ashley and Pine Forest have the best chances, with Terry Sanford the closest challenger; Jack Britt and Hoggard are long shots, but definitely not out of the question.

 

Boys Individuals to Watch

Philip Hall (Terry Sanford) is the best runner in the region, hands down, but this course is not suited to his talents.  It remains to be seen whether that will be an issue; certainly Pinecrest's Chris Kelly has more familiarity with the course.  Calvin Daughtry (Laney) and George Webb (New Hanover) will most likely find themselves racing Jake Betancourt (West Johnston) within the confines of the huge mass of Pinecrest and South View runners, led by Becket Killam and Michael Staples respectively.  One of the interesting things about pack-running teams: when TWO teams both bring close packs to a race, the race has a tendencey break down into individual battles to the finish line that could have huge implications for the team scores.  In other words, I predict an exciting finish followed by a state record for the most parents and coaches trying to determine the team scores on small scraps of paper.

 

Virtual Meet

(Using this year's times)

Girls  |  Boys

 

 

4A Mideast Regional

Girls Teams to Watch

The Green Hope girls might be at #2 in the All-Classes Team Rankings for the first time in a few years, but that certainly doesn't diminish their strength overall, or reduce their dominance in this region.  The Falcons are still big favorites here, and they actually still have some room for improvement.  Millbrook and Broughton are neck-and-neck for the second-place trophy, and the end result could hinge on Broughton's level of health: the Caps have been snakebitten this year, but if they are on the mend they have talent galore.  East Chapel Hill's girls are in a great position to return to the state meet, but will have to hold off Leesville Road and Apex to earn that trip.

 

Girls Individuals to Watch

Megan Sullivan (Broughton) has shown flashes of her enormous potential this season, but has had a little trouble with consistency.  When she is on, though, she is all but unbeatable, with great closing speed on top of her stamina.  Pegah Kamrani (East Chapel Hill) has continued to follow through on her breakthrough performance last spring, and she has written herself into the conversation for the top 10 at the state meet.  Maura McDonnell (Green Hope) is looking to break 18 minutes, after coming oh-so-close last fall, and the lead runners in this race could pull her there; wherever she is at the end, watch out for that final burst.  Rebekah Greengrass (Panther Creek) is getting back up to steam after some time off, while Kristen Lospinoso has been a revelation for Green Hope this fall.  Emily Pettis (Millbrook) rounds out the runners who have already been under 19, and she also leads a great group of 9th-graders from this region (7 at 19:30 or faster, including 3 for Green Hope).

 

Boys Teams to Watch

The Broughton boys have held the top spot in the NCRunners rankings since the first full weekend of the season, but if anybody has the talent to beat them, it's Cary.  The Imps stagnated a little bit during the middle of the season; this race will tell if that was the effect of hard training, or if the team simply ran up against its ceiling.  Millbrook ranks third and Apex fourth based on previous results, both of them a good ways behind the top two teams, while East Chapel Hill appears to be the only team close enough to those two to threaten them.

 

Boys Individuals to Watch

This region features 10 guys that have already broken 16 minutes, but the front of the race could still be rather spread out, as they range from 15:03 to 15:59.  Bakri Abushouk (Cary) currently tops the individual rankings in this state, and he ranks 14th nationally.  William Roberson (Broughton) could make things interesting if he goes with Bakri, but that can be tough, as the Cary senior tends to start aggressively.  Ryan Brady (East Chapel Hill) has come on like gangbusters recently, while we haven't seen the best of Nikolaus Kreiling (Jordan) for a while; the two could very well wind up side-by-side coming up the final hill.  The Broughton trio of John Dalton Rohr, Jeremy Brown, and Asher Smith-Rose will make up the heart of the first main pack, while Sam Miner (East Chapel Hill) and Abel Tecle (Cary) may not have shown us their best yet this year (if Miner gets back to the 15:30's, it would be a huge boost to his team's chances of advancing).  Tom Nobles (Green Hope) rounds out both the top 10 and the list of sub-16 runners; however, behind him there are at least 4 more runners with a great chance to join that group for the first time this year.  Could Broughton put all five runners under 16 minutes?

 

Virtual Meet

(Using this year's times)

Girls  |  Boys

 

 

4A Midwest Regional

Girls Teams to Watch

After a shaky start in their first race the Mount Tabor girls have improved steadily, and they have run very well in recent weeks.  They are favorites in this race, but not very secure favorites, as both Reagan and Grimsley are within 15 points of the Spartans according to the database.  Mount Tabor has the edge at the #1 runner (see below), Grimsley has a great top three, and Reagan has the best 5th runner.  Give the nod to the Spartans, who are looking more and more like a top-8 team at next week's state meet.  West Forsyth is the fourth-ranked team, and although it is unlilkely that anyone will knock the Titans out of that spot, they will also have a tough time moving into the top three.

 

Girls Individuals to Watch

Kayla Montgomery (Mount Tabor) continues to impress, with the latest eye-opener being her win over Anna McBride at the tough West Forsyth course last week.  McBride will be out for revenge, and though she has yet to put everything together so far this year, she showed her potential with a solo 17:51 on a slightly short course earlier this year.  There could be some interesting racing within the top 5, as Emily Grimes (Reagan), Blair Ramsey (Grimsley), and Chandler Borton (RJ Reynolds) all have PR's in the upper 18:40's.  Factor in Gabby Maudiere (Grimsley), and this race could be fun to watch.  Grimsley's third runner, Tori Churchill, is no slouch, having run 5:13 and 11:25 last spring.  One of the most intriguing story lines here, though, is in the names that are not in the top 10: Austin Vass (Page) and Kathryn Hayes (West Forsyth) have both struggled this season, but the postseason has a way of bringing out the best, and both of them have talent.

 

Boys Teams to Watch

This meet could produce a very rare event at the 4A level: there is the distinct possibility of one conference sweeping the qualifying spots to the state meet.  Mount Tabor comes in as the favorite, having fended off RJ Reynolds in the Central Piedmont Conference meet, and the database predicts the Spartans will do the same here.  After a bit of a gap, there comes another pair of CPC teams, Reagan and West Forsyth, although they could be challenged by Southeast Guilford or Northwest Guilford.  If the top four hold true to the virtual meet, it is a testament to Forsyth County running (as well as to the decline of boys' running in Guilford County).

 

Boys Individuals to Watch

Mount Tabor teammates Dalton Nickel and Ian Milder are favored to finish 1-2, and could even throttle down a bit at the end (the next-fastest time is 30 seconds back), allowing them to save some gas for the state meet.  Collin Loy (Southern Alamance), Dustin Sneed (RJ Reynolds), and Alex Herron (Reagan) could be the only runners standing in the way of a Spartan sweep of the top three places, as Tabor's Andrew Krivskey comes in ranked fourth.  This race should be very interesting in the mid-16's; it could split into two groups instead of remaining as one long string, and if so the athletes that choose the first group could make big gains in the standings.  Luke Sumerford (Grimsley), Eric Royer (RJ Reynolds), Matt Bomkamp (Northwest Guilford), and Ariel Shores (Southeast Guilford) are all potential candidates to make that leap.  If you want the best bet for a breakout race, go with the runner that has the best track speed among them: Shores.

 

Virtual Meet

(Using this year's times)

Girls  |  Boys

 

 

1A West Regional

Girls Teams to Watch

If you want to talk about a "murderer's row" of teams to have to beat for a spot in the state meet, look no further than this regional.  Providence (4th in the All-Classes Team Rankings) is only a 22-point favorite here over Ardrey Kell (5th All-Classes), who in turn has only a 10-point advantage on TC Roberson (7th All-Classes), and the the Rams are only up by 6 over Watauga (9th All-Classes).  Considering only 4A teams, those are the #2, 3, 5, and 7 squads in the state.  Bad luck for A.C. Reynolds and Myers Park, as they would advance from most regions, but might be on the outside looking in here.

 

Girls Individuals to Watch

Darby Middlebrook (Watauga) and Brooke Gordon (TC Roberson) are both friends and rivals, and they will race for the umpteenth time in their four-year caree.  Over the last three of those years, Sydney Foreman (Ardrey Kell) has inserted herself into many of those battles, and she always has a legitimate shot to win.  After those three, a second pack will form in the 18:30 - 18:50 range, containing three Providence runners (Bianca Bishop, Grace Sullivan, and Kayla Glova) as well as Lily Anderson (TC Roberson) and the Teague twins, Sydney and Samantha (Ardrey Kell), especially now that they are both healthy.  A few other candidates for the sub-19 club here include teammates Larissa Wood, Anna Vess, and Emma Hemelein-Wachowiak (AC Reynolds), Madison Harman (Watauga), and Anna McElrath (Independence); if you see Mary Prouty and Sonia Payerpaj in the chase pack, that could mean Myers Park is on track to upset of one of the top 4 teams.

 

Boys Teams to Watch

This figures to be a great team battle up front, with potential implications for the state meet.  If everything is going to come together for Watauga in this postseason, it has to start Saturday.  Providence is led by the top runner in the region and has a tight pack of 4 behind him, desirable things for any cross country team; the problem is the big gap between those two assets.  TC Roberson continues to produce solid teams every year, and this version may have snuck up on a few people, but are they improved enough to get onto the podium?  Ardrey Kell has the fourth-best team coming in, but Lake Norman is close enough to make a run at that last spot in the state meet.

 

Boys Individuals to Watch

Wyatt Maxey (Providence) has been running lights-out lately, and he will have the added motivation of trying to spark his team to the title.  Patrick Sheehan (Lake Norman) has also had an amazing season, and he will be trying to lift his teammates into the state meet as the fourth team.  That has "entertaining race" written all over it!  Josh Anderson (Watauga) will either have to make the leap to stay with them, or find himself in open territory between the leaders and the first true pack.  Dylan Matthewson (South Caldwell), Fisher Ransay (East Mecklenburg) and Tim Coffey (Mooresville) are all pretty evenly matched, with River Gordon (TC Roberson) coming into the race a bit behind them.  You can judge Watauga's fortunes by the location of Peter Vandenberg; if his recovery from naggin injuries earlier in the season leads him anywhere close to the 16-minute mark, the Pioneers will be hard to beat in this race.  Beyond the first 8, the race devolves into a scrum that will test the finish-line crew, as the next 16 runners are separated by only 20 seconds entering the meet.

 

Virtual Meet

(Using this year's times)

Girls  |  Boys